刚刚升级完毕，一切都乱糟糟的：）
『夫齐，秦不合，天下无忧』
Wed, 2004-11-10 22:38 — kzeng
今天闲翻《战国策》时看到的这一句，《史记》里好像也照抄了。前日里说战国时候没有“均势理论”看来是大错特错了，这算的上是最早阐述分析 Bi-polar system的了吧，比Waltz老人家早了2000多年，并且觉得虽然是简单的一句话，却比Waltz 15条分析冷战的bi-polar系统稳定的原因都精辟，bi-polar稳定的前提是两个polar之间不和（这点好像waltz并没有强调），美苏不和，天下无忧（特别是第三世界）。可是一旦这两个polar关系改善，不仅天下多忧起来，bi-polar system 也就完了。举个近的例子，美苏关系改善，美国就敢打海湾战争，后来苏联也垮掉了。举个远点的例子，齐秦关系改善，秦国就敢蚕食韩赵，最后连齐国也被吞入腹中。
呵呵，不记得有人写过两极不和是两极稳定的关键（可能是因为我没有读到，现在的IR课好像不再流行读冷战的东西了，除了那几部经典著作以外），但是两千年前的纵横家（不止一人提出这样的观点）却早就提出了，不得不让人钦佩啊...
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Comments
I agree with the saying. Howe
I agree with the saying. However, don't you think it's a rather....well, basic idea? I suppose there is elegance in parsimony, though.
hehe, yes.... but ...: -)
hehe, yes it is basic and quite intuitive. But the problem is that if Qi is aware of this simple idea, why did it still carriy out stupid policies which led to its own catastrophy? It's also the problem of the USSR. If he understood that confrontation with the US might secure the survival of the USSR, why did Gobechev hope to become friendly to the West? Hehe, there seems to be a lot of things behind this simple saying...
policies of a polical union (
policies of a polical union (ex. a country) is influenced by every single people in this union, more or less, positively or negatively, consciously or subconsciously.
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